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Falling Demand For Energy Turns The Oil Patch Upside Down
Company Online Stock Trading Just five months ago, homeowners in California and elsewhere were shocked by the soaring price of electricity and natural gas. The White House warned of a looming energy crisis and called for expanded drilling for oil and gas, even in wildlife reserves, and the construction of one new electricity plant each week for the next 20 years. Now energy demand and prices have tumbled.
Boeing's stock fell 13 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $38.26 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
Online Trading Stock And Business was in overdrive at the Apache Corporation earlier this year. Apache, one of the largest independent natural gas and oil companies in the United States, committed to spend close to $900 million this year to find and develop energy resources in North America.
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Stock Investing Course But now, in the wake of a recent sharp drop in demand for oil and gas a decline that is likely to accelerate after the terrorist attacks undermined an already weak economy the company is sharply scaling back. Apache reckons it may spend only $300 million for exploration and development in North America next year.
(AXcess News) Crude oil fell in New York trading Friday as national stocks of heating oil were considered high enough to support demand.Crude oil fell 2 cents a barrel to $63. 35pm Friday. Natural gas followed crude oil prices, declining 15 cents to $8.70. US inventory stocks of heating oil were 2. year seasonal average last week, while the US weather service reported that temperatures east of the Rocky Mountains will be higher than normal through Jan. 26. Also, an energy watchdog stated that heating oil demand in the Northeast, where 80 percent of the nation's home heating oil is consumed, would decline as much as 21 percent due to the warming trend.
Stock System Trading "We could do next year what we did this year, but I think we'd be brain dead if we did," said Raymond Plank, Apache's chairman and chief executive.
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Stock Investing Game Just five months ago, homeowners in California and elsewhere were shocked by the soaring price of electricity and natural gas. The White House warned of a looming energy crisis and called for expanded drilling for oil and gas, even in wildlife reserves, and the construction of one new electricity plant each week for the next 20 years.
CAN SLIM ®, Supply and Demand Our study of the greatest stock market winners validates what most investors understand.when demand for a stock outpaces supply, the price usually heads north. The best way to measure a stock's supply and demand is by watching its daily trading volume. When a stock rallies up in price, you want to see volume rise at the same time, which may represent institutional buying that can really power a stock's move. When a stock pulls back in price, you want to see volume dry up indicating no significant selling pressure.
Market Stock Trading Now energy demand and prices have tumbled. Nowhere is that more evident than in what used to be called the nation's "oil patch" and now more accurately the "energy patch." In Texas, Oklahoma and elsewhere, drilling activity is plunging as a shrinking economy, milder weather and competition from other fuels throttle demand for natural gas, causing prices to drop as quickly as they shot up last year.
Online Stock Trading Canada The decline in spending on exploration and development has many experts worried that the United States will face another supply squeeze when economic growth and gas demand returns.
Stock Investing Basics Oil prices have also fallen, for some of the same reasons that natural gas prices have tanked. But increasingly, natural gas is more important than oil to the Southwestern "oil patch." While major oil companies invest in large oil projects in West Africa and other sites abroad, the emphasis at home has shifted. In the 1980's, two out of three drilling rigs operating in the United States were drilling for oil; today four out of five are drilling for natural gas.
Day Online Stock Trading By and large, natural gas is a continental market almost all the gas consumed in North America is produced here and there is no OPEC to curtail production when prices drop.
Online Stock Trading Game Major oil companies invest long- term to drill in big deepwater oil fields or remote areas like Kazakhstan, where many can make a profit as long as oil costs more than $15 a barrel. (It closed in New York today at $22.79 a barrel.) But much of the gas in the United States and Canada is produced from shallow wells that cost less to sink, so investment is more speculative and drillers are quicker to shut them down when prices fall.
Stock Investing Software That is what is happening now. Across North America, upstream capital spending on natural gas and oil is roughly expected to fall 25 to 40 percent next year, said Art Smith, chief executive of John S. Herold Inc., an energy research and consulting firm in Norwalk, Conn. "Everyone is taking a more cautious view of things," he said.
Online Option Stock Trading While some in the industry may spend more in hopes that cold winter weather will cause prices to rebound, Mr. Plank said, "I don't think it behooves one to bet the farm on the weather."
India Online Stock Trading Already, the number of natural gas rigs in the United States has dropped 11 percent from the peak three months ago, to 953, according to Baker Hughes Inc., an oil field services company based here.
Stock Investing For Dummy Ken Hersh, managing partner of Natural Gas Partners, a $1 billion private equity fund in Dallas that invests in energy companies and properties, predicts the gas rig count could fall as low as 700 just enough to keep overall domestic gas production from declining, he said.
Software Stock Trading Other signs of a slowdown abound. At Global Marine Inc., one of the world's largest offshore drillers, the daily rates charged for 250-foot jackup gas drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico have dropped from a peak of $52,000 in May to the low-$20,000 range today.
Online Stock Trading Review "Every week it seems like four or five more rigs are being stacked," said Michael Dawson, a vice president at Global Marine, which is based here. He said he had expected the demand for gas, and prices, to rebound in the first quarter of next year, but that is now less likely after the terrorist attacks. "It's harder to say when the inflection point might be," he said.
Stock Investing Tip What remains to be seen, according to many industry experts, is whether prices will whipsaw back up when the economy rebounds. While no one predicts a quick return to a price of $10 per thousand cubic feet the peak last winter many analysts said they thought demand could quickly outstrip production again in a year or two, increasing prices again.
Comparison Online Stock Before last year, natural gas prices and drilling activity had slumped as warm winters, the Asian recession of 1997-98 and low oil prices made other fuels less expensive.
Online Stock Trading Site Gas prices rebounded sharply last year, spurring a modest increase in domestic production, but now that revival in drilling is beginning to slow. This year, production rose by about 500 million cubic feet a day, or just under 1 percent of daily consumption, estimates Ed Kelly, director of North American natural gas research for Cambridge Energy Research Associates. But next year it may increase only another 100 million cubic feet a day, he said.
Online Stock Investing "The effect of this decline in drilling could become apparent in six or nine months, just as the economic rebound gets underway," Mr. Kelly said. He expects gas to fetch a little more than $2 per thousand cubic feet in the first half of next year, rising to about $3 by the end of 2002.
Canada Online Stock Trading The slowdown in the economy and milder weather are also taking a toll on merchant electricity generators, another formerly high-flying industry that has slumped lately as power prices in California and elsewhere have dropped as demand fell. According to Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Company, an investment bank in Arlington, Va., total domestic electricity output in the week of Sept. 21 was 2.5 percent lower than the same period last year.
Best Online Stock Trading Some analysts expect that what had been a headlong rush to build new power plants earlier this year could give way to a period of consolidation exemplified last week by Reliant Resources Inc.'s deal to buy Orion Power Holdings Inc. for $2.9 billion as shares of some large generators have fallen 40 percent to 60 percent in the last five months.
Stock Investing For Beginner For the time being, soaring inventories of natural gas have eliminated any concern about supplies. With six weeks remaining for injections of gas into underground storage, the nation had 2.85 trillion cubic feet of gas in inventory on Sept. 21, or about 86 percent of storage capacity, according to the American Gas Association. That is 19 percent more than the same time last year.
Day Stock Trading But Mr. Hersh notes that prices for gas to be delivered in four or five years are still $3 or higher. While that is lower than what these "forward" prices were earlier this year, they remain about $1 more than the trading range of natural gas forward prices before the volatility of the last few years. "The market is saying, here's a new, sustainable price level that's 50 percent higher than the historical level," he said.
Online Stock Trading In India To Mr. Plank, low prices are not the only disincentive to investment in new drilling. Many producers, he said, continue to be scared off by wild price swings that can take the price of a thousand cubic feet of gas on a round trip from $2 to $10 and back to $2 all in the space of a few years. "With this price volatility," he said, "the industry just isn't able to attract sustained investment."
Finance Investing Stock Market By Richard A. Oppel Jr.
New York times - 10/3/2001
Topic: Petroleum Industry
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